US Open Quarterfinals: Sabalenka, Pegula, and Alcaraz in Action

The US Open has reached the part of the fortnight where the draw sheet starts to feel small and the stakes suddenly look enormous.

Across the next two days in New York, eight quarterfinals – four in the women’s draw, four in the men’s – will carve the fields down to a final four. Storylines are colliding: a dominant No. 1, a pair of American standard-bearers, a men’s draw stripped of seeds, and a home nation desperate for a first champion in more than two decades.

Sabalenka’s three-peat charge meets its first real test

Aryna Sabalenka has been playing like someone in a hurry. Four matches, four straight-sets wins, barely a hint of turbulence. The top seed is hunting a third consecutive title at Flushing Meadows, a run no one has managed since Serena Williams owned this event from 2012 to 2014.

On Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. (ESPN), the first crack in that armor could appear.

Across the net will be No. 6 seed Linda Noskova, the current Wimbledon champion and the player Scooby Axson tips to blow the tournament wide open. Sabalenka has bullied her way through the early rounds, but Noskova carries the kind of shot-making and big-match confidence that can flip a night session on Ashe into chaos.

Axson’s prediction is blunt: Noskova to knock out the two-time defending champion and play a central role in Sabalenka losing her No. 1 ranking. If that happens, the women’s draw changes shape in an instant.

American hopes: Pegula and Gauff shoulder the weight

For the home crowd, the focus tilts quickly to two familiar names.

Jessica Pegula, the No. 3 seed, returns to the stage where she reached the final two years ago before running into Sabalenka. This time, the path is different. At 7 p.m. Tuesday (ESPN), she faces fellow American Emma Navarro, the No. 26 seed, in a matchup that pits Pegula’s relentless baseline precision against Navarro’s rising belief.

Axson sees little drama here. His call: Pegula “dispatches” Navarro and moves into the semifinals, where he expects her to meet Noskova in a collision of current form and fresh Grand Slam pedigree.

Coco Gauff, meanwhile, steps into a quarterfinal that feels like a snapshot of the sport’s future. The No. 4 seed and reigning US Open champion – who backed up that breakthrough with a French Open title in 2025 – faces No. 5 seed Mirra Andreeva on Wednesday, a showdown between the past two Roland Garros winners.

Gauff has carried the weight of expectation in New York before and thrived. Axson backs her to do it again, picking her to prevail over Andreeva and set up a semifinal against newly top-ranked Elena Rybakina, the current Australian Open champion. Rybakina still has work to do first, with Qinwen Zheng standing in her way on Wednesday, but the prediction is clear: a heavyweight semi between the tour’s newest No. 1 and the defending champion.

If it plays out that way, the US Open could be staring at an all-American semifinal on one side and a clash of power champions on the other – with Sabalenka potentially watching it all from the outside.

Men’s draw: chaos, opportunity, and a long American wait

On the men’s side, the picture is far messier.

Only three of the top 10 seeds even survived to the fourth round, leaving a bracket that looks more like a minefield than a roadmap. It has, however, opened the door for something American fans have craved since Andy Roddick lifted the trophy in 2003: a serious run at the title.

Three U.S. men are still standing in the quarterfinals – No. 8 Ben Shelton, No. 11 Frances Tiafoe and unseeded Alex Michelsen – and at least one will reach the semifinals, with Tiafoe and Michelsen drawn against each other.

They meet Tuesday at 1 p.m. (ESPN), a clash between a seasoned showman and a breakout underdog. Tiafoe knows this stage; he’s been to the last four in New York twice already (2022, 2024) and has turned Arthur Ashe Stadium into a kind of second home. Michelsen, unseeded and unburdened, has ridden a longshot surge into the second week.

Axson expects experience to tell. His pick: Tiafoe to end Michelsen’s run and book a third US Open semifinal, keeping the American flag flying deep into the second week once again.

Alcaraz, Shelton and the heavyweight on the horizon

The night session on Tuesday belongs to Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton.

Alcaraz, the No. 2 seed and two-time US Open champion (2022, 2025), walks into this quarterfinal as the clear favorite in a draw that has shed many of its big names. Shelton, the No. 8 seed, brings the kind of raw power and fearless shot selection that can ignite a New York crowd in an instant.

The men’s field might be unpredictable, but Axson isn’t blinking here. He backs Alcaraz to advance, ending Shelton’s charge and reinforcing his status as the man to beat in the bottom half of the draw.

If Tiafoe does his part earlier in the day, an Alcaraz–Tiafoe semifinal looms as a rematch soaked in storylines, with a place in the final and a potential American fairytale on the line.

Zverev cruises, Khachanov lurks

The top half of the men’s draw has a different feel: one clear favorite, one exhausted survivor, and one dangerous floater.

No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev faces Botic van de Zandschulp on Wednesday. Van de Zandschulp arrives drained after a five-set marathon that included three tiebreaks just to reach this stage. Zverev, in contrast, has been allowed to “cruise” through the draw so far, rarely forced into the kind of physical trench warfare that has undone him in past Slams.

Axson’s read is straightforward: Zverev to roll past an emptied van de Zandschulp and into the semifinals.

The other quarterfinal on that side is the kind of matchup that only a chaotic Slam can produce. Unseeded Karen Khachanov takes on No. 28 seed Alexander Blockx, with Khachanov already in the middle of a run built on upsets. Axson expects one more: Khachanov to take down Blockx and set up a semifinal with Zverev.

If that holds, the men’s last four will feature the world No. 1, the two-time champion, and at least one American. The bracket might have started in disarray, but the endgame is starting to look familiar: established stars circling the title, with a home crowd desperate to see one of their own break a 23-year drought.

The quarterfinals will decide whether this US Open bends toward the expected – Alcaraz, Zverev, Sabalenka – or whether New York gets the kind of upheaval it secretly craves, with new names, new champions, and a fresh script written under the lights.