US Open 2023: Key Storylines and Predictions
The last Grand Slam of the year is about to start, and Flushing Meadows is once again the crossroads of ambition and ranking arithmetic.
On Sunday in New York, the US Open singles draws open with storylines stacked as high as the Arthur Ashe Stadium stands. Titles, careers, and the No. 1 spots in both tours are all in play.
Serena Williams is only on the doubles slate this time, a reminder of eras gone by. The present belongs to Aryna Sabalenka, at least for now. The two-time defending US Open champion arrives as top seed and the player everyone else has to dislodge, but her grip on the WTA summit is under direct attack.
Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff all walk into Queens with a mathematical shot at leaving as world No. 1. Every round could tilt the rankings table. Every bad day could cost someone the top line of the sport.
On the men’s side, the field feels strangely open. Alexander Zverev, the top seed, is already a major champion after his French Open breakthrough earlier this year and now chases a second Slam to anchor his status. Carlos Alcaraz, the Australian Open winner, returns from a four-month injury layoff with more questions than match reps. Felix Auger-Aliassime, seeded third, is still chasing his first major final. Novak Djokovic, the fourth seed, is chasing history: a 25th Grand Slam title.
With world No. 1 Jannik Sinner ruled out by a knee injury, the draw has a different shape. There is space for a new name to shove into the ATP elite, and the USA TODAY team sees that opportunity going in some bold directions.
Women’s Draw: Home hopes and a ranking race
All three USA TODAY reporters see the same storm forming over New York: Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, the two standard-bearers of American women’s tennis, are expected to carry their Cincinnati form straight into the US Open semifinals.
Scooby Axson envisions a distinctly American flavor to the last four. He has both Gauff and Pegula in the semis, with Gauff running into five-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek. The key, he believes, is Gauff’s serve. If it holds up, he sees her taking out the former US Open champion.
On the other side of Axson’s draw sits Pegula against Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, the latest star from Czechia’s deep talent pool that currently places seven women in the top 50. Axson backs Pegula to handle that test in straight sets and reach her second US Open final.
Cydney Henderson’s bracket follows a similar path, but with more drama around the supporting cast. She also has Gauff and Pegula colliding in the final, a rematch of their recent Cincinnati showdown. Henderson expects Gauff to face Swiatek in the semis, with the Polish star exploiting a compromised Elena Rybakina, who is nursing Achilles soreness and may not be fully fit even to reach the quarterfinals.
Pegula, in Henderson’s view, will have to go through Sabalenka in the other semi. Sabalenka enters with her ranking and reputation on the line, and Henderson expects that weight to tell. Pegula, she predicts, will pounce when the pressure cracks the top seed.
Danielle Lerner’s bracket also leans heavily on American momentum. She sends Gauff and Pegula into the semifinals again, Gauff against Swiatek, Pegula against Noskova. For Lerner, the injuries and mental form of the other leading contenders are too big to ignore. Rybakina, who retired from Cincinnati with an apparent Achilles issue, is not expected to survive beyond the quarters. Sabalenka, Lerner notes, has looked vulnerable against lesser opponents, and she doesn’t see the two-time defending champion navigating that minefield this time.
The finals picks underline just how much faith this panel has in the American surge.
Axson and Henderson both forecast an all-American final: Pegula vs. Gauff. Lerner breaks from the script slightly, setting up Gauff against Noskova for the title.
As for the trophy?
Axson believes this is Pegula’s moment. He has the Buffalo native winning her first US Open and climbing all the way to world No. 1 with it.
Henderson and Lerner both ride with Gauff. Henderson points to a six-match win streak and the authority of her Cincinnati title as reasons to back the 2023 US Open champion to navigate a brutal path. Lerner sees the same thing from a different angle: Gauff’s momentum, her big serving, and the sense that she is now a multi-Slam force. Lerner has her lifting a third career major and a second crown in New York.
If the predictions hold, the women’s fortnight ends with either a new American No. 1 or a 22-year-old cementing herself as the face of the next generation. Either way, the WTA rankings would not look the same on Monday morning.
Men’s Draw: A vacuum at No. 1 and a chance for new stars
The absence of Jannik Sinner and the uncertainty around Alcaraz have turned the men’s event into something rare in the modern era: a Grand Slam where several players can realistically dream big.
Axson sees that chaos opening doors for both established and emerging names. He calls this the tournament “suited” for Taylor Fritz to finally break through, but has the American running into top seed Zverev in the semifinals and coming up short again.
The other half of Axson’s draw is where he plants his biggest flag. Djokovic, he warns, is never to be written off, and he expects the 24-time major winner to carve out another deep run. The run stops, in his view, against someone “significantly younger”: 22-year-old Arthur Fils of France, who has been on a tear since his impressive showing in Cincinnati.
Henderson leans into the hunger of the American men. The decades-long US Open title drought, she suggests, has worn thin, and this is the year the field finally breaks open for them. With Sinner sidelined and Alcaraz coming off injury, she sees the door creaking open.
Ben Shelton, she notes, has been erratic this hard-court swing, with a title in Montreal followed by an early exit in Cincinnati. In New York, though, Henderson expects him to ignite. Her bracket has Shelton reaching the semifinals to face Djokovic.
On the other side, she sends Zverev into a semifinal showdown with Auger-Aliassime, a chance for the Canadian to finally test himself deep in a major against one of the game’s current power brokers.
Lerner takes a different route to the same sense of unpredictability. To her, this feels like one of the most volatile US Opens in recent memory. Still, she backs the pedigree of Djokovic and Alcaraz to shine through early rust and recent stumbles.
Lerner has the two recent Australian Open champions colliding in a semifinal, with a potential quarterfinal between Alcaraz and Shelton circled as one of the matches of the tournament. On the other side, she sends ninth seed Fritz into the semis for a date with top seed Zverev, a run that would mark the American’s deepest Grand Slam performance.
The projected finals reflect just how split the room is on who seizes this opening.
Axson goes all-in on the youth movement: Arthur Fils vs. Taylor Fritz in the championship match. Henderson sees a different American making the leap, picking a Shelton vs. Zverev final. Lerner sticks with history and aura: Djokovic vs. Fritz for the title.
Axson’s champion is Fils. He expects the Frenchman’s hot streak to roll right through New York and push him into the sport’s new “big three” alongside Alcaraz and Sinner.
Henderson hands the trophy to Shelton. For her, this US Open becomes the site of multiple firsts: Shelton’s first final and his first Grand Slam title, both on home soil.
Lerner’s winner is not listed, but her setup alone says plenty: even with doubts swirling around his hard-court form, she still sees Djokovic standing in the final weekend, staring down another generation and another American hopeful.
The stage is set: a women’s field braced for an American surge and a men’s draw waiting to see which contender dares to own a Sinner-less Slam. The rankings will move. Reputations will, too.
Who walks out of New York with a new era in their hands?
