Premier League Predictions: Jones Knows This Weekend's Matchups
Lewis Jones, better known as Jones Knows, has run his eye over the weekend’s Premier League coupon – and he doesn’t like the look of soft centres, mental blocks or teams still nursing a battering.
Brentford vs Chelsea – Bees scent blood
Chelsea walk into exactly the sort of fight they hate on Friday night.
Brentford thrive on chaos: second balls, long throws, corners swung under the crossbar. Chelsea, over the past season and a bit, have wilted in those moments. Out of the 17 ever-present Premier League clubs since the start of last season, only one has conceded more from set-plays than Chelsea’s 0.5 goals per game. Hull exposed that fragility again, scoring from a corner when Emi Martinez flapped at a delivery.
Brentford know this script. Across the last three meetings they’ve carved out 0.73 expected goals per game just from set-pieces alone against Chelsea. That’s not a quirk. That’s a pattern.
Jones sees a home side ready for a set-piece feast and a visiting defence that still looks there for the taking. Brentford at Evens in the draw-no-bet market is his way in.
Score prediction: 2-1 Brentford.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa – goals at a premium
Everything about this points towards a cagey lunchtime.
Tottenham’s attacking issues are no secret: four league games, no goals, and just 0.95 expected goals per match. For a Roberto De Zerbi side, that’s a jarring comedown. His Brighton and Marseille teams averaged 1.92 goals per game; Spurs under his watch are crawling along at 0.73. Something in the environment is jamming the attacking gears. Call it a mental block, call it a hangover – it’s there.
Villa aren’t exactly free-flowing either. One league goal all season. They lack shots, they lack volume. Tottenham, by contrast, see plenty of the ball but don’t turn it into chances.
Both teams have different problems, same outcome: blunt edges.
Jones is happy to fade the goals. Under 2.5 at 10/11 makes most sense.
Score prediction: 1-1.
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals (10/11).
Brighton vs Arsenal – Arteta’s awkward opponent
Fabian Hurzeler hasn’t beaten Mikel Arteta yet. Five meetings, no victories. But that headline hides the real story.
Brighton have bloodied Arsenal’s nose in the numbers. They’ve won four of the last five expected-goals battles between the sides, and the games have carried an edge – on the pitch and in the technical areas. Arsenal arrive with a perfect start, but this is no routine away day.
Jones is wary of the short away price. Brighton’s double chance at 11/10 holds far more appeal than the 7/10 on an Arsenal win.
One duel stands out. Olivier Boscagli should be tasked with stopping Bukayo Saka. The winger looks back to his electric best and defenders are paying for it. He has drawn 13 fouls in three league games, three of those fouls resulting in bookings. Boscagli already has two cards in two previous games against Arsenal.
Sky Bet go 5/4 on Boscagli committing two or more fouls and 4/1 on him being booked. Given Saka’s current form and Boscagli’s history, those prices carry bite.
Score prediction: 1-1.
Everton vs Ipswich Town – back to Leif Davis
Leif Davis burned the fingers last time. Backed to score or assist, he blanked. Then, the week Jones stepped away, Davis promptly did both at Crystal Palace.
That’s betting. You swallow it and go again.
Davis is not playing like a conventional left-back. He’s operating as a constant attacking outlet, driving into the final third and arriving in dangerous areas. Two goals and an assist in four Premier League games underline his influence. Stretch it back into pre-season and he has four goals in his last seven outings. From left-back. That’s winger territory.
The standout angle is the shot-on-target line. At 100/30 for Davis to register at least one effort on target, his advanced positioning makes that price look generous.
Score prediction: 2-1 Everton.
Best bet: Leif Davis 1+ shot on target (100/30).
Newcastle United vs Hull City – scars from a hammering
Teams don’t just walk away from a heavy defeat. The legs ache, but so does the confidence.
Newcastle found that out at Leeds. Four down before they could breathe, eventually beaten 4-1. Matthias Jaissle admitted the result was “difficult to digest” and that his young side couldn’t live with Leeds’ physicality.
History doesn’t offer much comfort. Strip out games against Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool, and look at Premier League sides who concede four or more in a match. In their very next game, there’s been just one win in the last 15, with five draws and nine defeats.
That trend alone drags Jones towards Hull in the double-chance market. Hull or draw at 11/8 is where he lands.
Score prediction: 2-1 Hull.
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City – McAtee in the book?
Some prices just look wrong. James McAtee’s card odds sit in that category.
He has been thrown into the heart of a Premier League midfield – the most duel-heavy, physically demanding environment in Europe – and he’s responded with seven fouls in his last two matches and a yellow card in both. He’s effectively taken on Elliott Anderson’s role as Forest’s hustler in the middle.
Yet he’s still 13/2 to be booked again.
For a player repeatedly in the thick of challenges, that number hasn’t caught up with reality. Jones calls it a classic positional shift that the market hasn’t fully priced.
Score prediction: 2-0 Forest.
Best bet: James McAtee to be carded (13/2).
Bournemouth vs Liverpool – Iraola’s emotional return
Sometimes the storyline matters. Andoni Iraola returning to Bournemouth with Liverpool feels like one of those days when the air crackles a little more.
He spent three seasons on the south coast, dragged Bournemouth to their highest-ever Premier League finish, and then left for Anfield. Sunday is his first trip back.
Managers going “home” often find it awkward. David Moyes lost at Everton with Manchester United. Graham Potter lost at Brighton with Chelsea. Thomas Frank only drew at Brentford with Tottenham. Brendan Rodgers drew at Swansea with Liverpool. Mauricio Pochettino drew at Southampton with Spurs.
The pattern? The home crowd know every quirk, the players understand the manager’s habits, and the atmosphere bites harder.
Bournemouth are 19/10 for the win. Jones leans towards the narrative and fancies the upset.
Score prediction: 2-1 Bournemouth.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace – trust the machine
When the price is right, backing Leeds is rarely a bad idea. You know what you’re buying: organisation, aggression, set-piece threat, a team drilled to within an inch of its life.
They simply don’t lose many.
Just one defeat in their last 13 Premier League matches, six wins and six draws since March – no side in the division has lost fewer in that spell. The 4-1 dismantling of Newcastle at Elland Road was another reminder of the formula working at full power.
The first-half numbers are even more startling. Across their last 19 games, Leeds have conceded only two goals before the break, keeping 17 first-half clean sheets. That is elite-level consistency from the first whistle.
Palace, by contrast, have already shipped 11 goals in their opening four league fixtures. Leeds smell vulnerability early.
Jones goes for the fast start: Leeds/Leeds in the half-time/full-time market at 7/4.
Score prediction: 3-1 Leeds.
Manchester City vs Sunderland – Haaland’s last target
There is one Premier League club Erling Haaland hasn’t scored against. Just one. Sunderland.
He has already found the net against 24 of the 25 teams he has faced in the competition. The Black Cats stand alone on his hit list. Given his current form, that feels ominous.
Haaland has scored in each of his last three league appearances and has nine in his last nine Premier League games. His latest, the winner at Old Trafford against Manchester United, was another cold, clinical finish.
Backing him simply to score offers little value, so Jones adds a couple of conditions. Haaland to score in a Manchester City win with under 3.5 total goals comes in at 11/8. Sunderland can frustrate, City have been efficient rather than explosive.
Score prediction: 2-0 Manchester City.
Fulham vs Manchester United – chaos at Craven Cottage?
Michael Carrick does not need another bad headline going into an extended international break. One win from four league games, a 2-0 lead squandered against Brighton in midweek – the familiar Manchester United cycle is already whirring.
Evens on an away win will tempt plenty. Fulham open games up, and that should suit United’s forwards. But Jones prefers to follow the numbers pointing to a lively afternoon.
No two teams have had more touches in the opposition box this season: 139 each. That’s a clear signal of intent from both sides.
One name jumps off the page. Josh King leads the league for touches in the opposition box with 30. He has two goals from 11 shots, five of them on target. He lives in dangerous areas.
So Jones marries the angles. Both teams to score and King to have at least one shot on target is 11/8 and looks a smart way to ride the attacking wave.
Score prediction: 3-2 Manchester United.
The margins are thin, the narratives are rich, and by Sunday night we’ll know who handled the pressure – and who got swallowed by it.
