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Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction: Preview and Betting Tips

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Premier League

St. James' Park hosts an intriguing Premier League clash on 19 September 2026 as Newcastle welcome newly resurgent Hull City in Regular Season - 5. With both sides unbeaten in their last three league outings, this fixture has all the ingredients of a tight, tactical contest rather than a straightforward home banker.

Newcastle come into the weekend 12th in the table with 5 points from 4 matches. They have been hard to beat at home but not yet convincing, drawing both games at St. James' Park and carrying a negative goal difference. Hull City, by contrast, have made a flying start: 4th in the Premier League on 8 points, still unbeaten and boasting one of the stingiest defences in the division so far. For bettors and fans alike, this is a classic clash between an attack-minded host and a compact, well-organised visitor.

Historically, Newcastle have enjoyed the better of this matchup in competitive games, but Hull City have already shown in 2026 that they can frustrate opponents and grind out results. This makes the Newcastle vs Hull City prediction market particularly interesting, especially around double chance angles and low-goals scenarios.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Stats

  • Newcastle sit 12th on 5 points with 7 goals scored and 8 conceded from 4 Premier League matches; Hull City are 4th with 8 points, 5 goals scored and only 2 conceded.
  • The most recent meeting on 27 July 2024 saw Newcastle win 2-0 away at The MKM Stadium in a club friendly.
  • In 2026 Premier League statistics, Newcastle average 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match, while Hull City average 1.3 scored and just 0.5 conceded, with 3 clean sheets in 4 games.

Newcastle vs Hull City — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 12 vs 4
  • Points: 5 vs 8
  • Goals For: 7 vs 5
  • Goals Against: 8 vs 2
  • Clean Sheets: Newcastle 1 (tournament statistics), Hull City 3 (tournament statistics)

After four rounds, the table underlines the contrasting profiles. Newcastle’s 7 goals from 4 matches show they carry threat going forward, but 8 conceded leave them with a negative goal difference and a mid-table position. Their home record so far reads two draws, with 4 scored and 4 conceded at St. James' Park, reinforcing the sense of an open, high-variance side still searching for balance.

Hull City’s early-season story is built on defensive solidity. They have yet to lose, with 2 wins and 2 draws, and have conceded only 2 goals in 4 games. Remarkably, they have kept clean sheets in all home fixtures and once away, and their average of 0.5 goals conceded per match is among the best in the league. While they score slightly less than Newcastle, their goal difference of +3 and unbeaten record justify their current top-four berth.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Matchups

Y. Wissa vs M. Belloumi

With no Newcastle player featuring in the top scorers list, Yoane Wissa stands out via the disciplinary stats as one of the key figures for the hosts. The midfielder has played 4 matches, starting all of them and logging 351 minutes. He has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist, taken 7 shots (2 on target), and created 4 key passes from 64 total passes, underlining his dual role as ball-carrier and chance creator. His 61 duels and 11 fouls drawn show how often he is involved in physical battles between the lines.

For Hull City, M. Belloumi is the clear attacking reference in the data. The midfielder has 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 appearances (all starts), playing 315 minutes. With 8 shots (3 on target), 3 key passes, and 48 total passes, Belloumi is both a finisher and a link-man. Defensively, 10 tackles, 3 blocks and 9 interceptions suggest he is crucial in Hull’s press and midfield structure. This head-to-head between Wissa’s energy and Belloumi’s end product could tilt the midfield battle and, by extension, the match outcome.

O. McBurnie vs Newcastle back line

O. McBurnie does not yet have a league goal in 2026, but his profile points to a classic focal point that can trouble Newcastle’s defence. In 4 starts and 352 minutes, he has supplied 1 assist, taken 6 shots (3 on target), and made 69 passes with 5 key passes. More importantly, he has been involved in 74 duels, winning 36, and drawn 9 fouls, indicating how often Hull use him to secure territory and relieve pressure.

Newcastle have conceded 8 goals in 4 league games, averaging 2.0 per match, and have yet to keep a clean sheet at home. Against a physical striker like McBurnie, who also leads Hull in yellow cards (2) and appears on the top red cards list (despite no red yet), discipline and aerial organisation will be essential for the hosts.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent head-to-head meetings between Newcastle and Hull City have produced a mix of tight contests and high-scoring affairs, with several clashes at Hull’s ground and a couple at St. James' Park. Competitive history slightly favours Newcastle, though Hull have had their moments, particularly in cup football.

  • 27 July 2024: Hull City 0-2 Newcastle (Friendlies Clubs)
  • 29 November 2016: Hull City 1-1 Newcastle (League Cup, Hull City won 3-1 on penalties)
  • 31 January 2015: Hull City 0-3 Newcastle (Premier League)
  • 20 September 2014: Newcastle 2-2 Hull City (Premier League)
  • 1 March 2014: Hull City 1-4 Newcastle (Premier League)

Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction

Stats suggest a clash of styles. Newcastle’s league form line of LDWD and an attacking average of 1.8 goals per game point to an enterprising approach, especially at home where they have scored 2.0 per match. However, their defensive numbers are worrying: 2.0 goals conceded on average, and no home wins yet.

Hull City arrive with markedly better recent form. Their Premier League form string WWDD underlines an unbeaten start, and the comparison model gives them a clear edge in form (62 vs 38) and defence (80 vs 20). They concede just 0.5 goals per match and have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 outings. The prediction probabilities back this up: Newcastle are given only a 10% chance of winning, with the draw and Hull City wins each rated at 45%. That strongly points towards the visitors avoiding defeat, even if St. James' Park remains a difficult venue.

Predicted Score: Newcastle 1-1 Hull City

Newcastle Recent Form

Newcastle’s recent Premier League form reads LDWD, reflecting a side that has been inconsistent but competitive. They opened with a loss, followed by a draw, then a win, and another draw. Across 4 matches they have 1 victory, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 8. At home, two consecutive draws with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded underline their inability so far to convert performances into three points.

Hull City Recent Form

Hull City’s Premier League form line WWDD highlights a strong start. Two wins were followed by two draws, leaving them unbeaten after 4 games. They have scored 5 and conceded only 2, with 2 home clean sheets and 1 away. Their biggest wins include 2-0 at home and 1-0 away, pointing to a pragmatic, defensively robust approach that travels well.

Newcastle Possible Starting Lineup

GK: N. Pope; Defenders: S. Botman, D. Burn, T. Livramento, L. Hall; Midfielders: Joelinton, Nico González, J. Murphy, J. Ramsey, H. Barnes; Forwards: Y. Wissa.

Newcastle’s squad list suggests a likely 4-2-3-1 shape, which aligns with their most-used formation in the statistics. N. Pope provides experience in goal, with S. Botman and D. Burn likely anchoring the defence, flanked by the energetic full-backs T. Livramento and L. Hall. In midfield, Joelinton and Nico González offer a mix of physicality and ball progression, while J. Murphy and H. Barnes can stretch play from wide areas. J. Ramsey may operate as a central creator behind Y. Wissa, whose work rate and ability to draw fouls could be key in unlocking Hull’s deep block.

Hull City Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Butland; Defenders: L. Coyle, J. Egan, S. Ajayi, C. Hughes, R. Giles; Midfielders: H. Morita, E. Matazo, M. Belloumi; Forwards: O. McBurnie, J. Gelhardt.

Hull City’s statistics point to a 5-4-1 base, and the squad composition supports a back five with experienced figures such as J. Egan, S. Ajayi and L. Coyle. R. Giles offers width from the left, while C. Hughes can tuck in as a third centre-back. In midfield, H. Morita and E. Matazo provide balance and ball-winning, allowing M. Belloumi to play higher up as the main creative and scoring threat. Up front, O. McBurnie is the natural target man, with someone like J. Gelhardt able to support from the channels or drop into pockets to link play.

Newcastle Team News

No significant absences reported.

Hull City Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Newcastle:

  • None reported.

Hull City:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Newcastle vs Hull City

Exactly 3 distinct tips across different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back Hull City or Draw (Double Chance). The prediction probabilities give Newcastle only a 10% chance of winning, with both draw and Hull City wins at 45%. Hull are unbeaten (WWDD) with just 2 goals conceded, while Newcastle have yet to win at home. Market odds on the 1X2 line heavily favour Newcastle (home win between 1.53 and 1.63, implying roughly 61.3% to 65.4% chance), creating a clear clash between market view and performance data. Using the double chance in favour of Hull (exact odds not listed but derived from the away and draw prices between 3.84 and 5.49) looks a safer way to oppose the short-priced favourite.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Both teams’ under/over profiles are conservative: Newcastle have gone under 2.5 goals in all 4 league matches, and Hull City also show 4 unders from 4 at the 2.5 line. Newcastle average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded, but Hull’s defensive record (0.5 conceded per game, 3 clean sheets) should drag the tempo down. With draw and away outcomes rated at a combined 90%, a cagey, low-scoring contest is a strong angle, even though specific under/over odds are not provided.
  • Value Tip: Hull City to score at least one goal. Hull have scored in 3 of 4 league matches, with Belloumi contributing 2 goals and 1 assist and McBurnie providing 1 assist and constant aerial threat. Newcastle have yet to keep a home clean sheet and concede 2.0 goals per game overall. While the market prices Hull as clear underdogs on the 1X2 line (away win between 4.76 and 5.49, implying roughly 18.2% to 21.0% chance), their attacking data and Newcastle’s defensive frailties suggest that backing Hull to find the net at what should be a reasonable price in goals-related markets offers value.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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