Fantasy Basketball: Rising Guard Values to Target
The NBA calendar is creeping toward opening night, and fantasy draft rooms are already humming. This year, the real fault line runs through the backcourt. Guards are where prices swing wildly, reputations clash with reality, and managers willing to ignore last spring’s noise can build a title-winning edge.
This is where the value hides.
Garland’s New Kingdom in Los Angeles
Darius Garland arrives in Los Angeles with the ball in his hands and the runway cleared.
James Harden and Ivica Zubac were shipped out at last year’s deadline. Kawhi Leonard is expected to follow. What’s left is a Clippers offense that now belongs to Garland, a multi-time All-Star whose numbers already read like a fantasy cheat code.
Over the last five seasons, Garland has delivered 20.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.6 threes in 33 minutes a night. He has done it on 46 percent from the field, 39 percent from deep and 87 percent at the line. That is an elite 9-category profile even before you factor in what’s coming: the heaviest usage of his career.
The preview arrived when Leonard sat last season. With Kawhi off the floor, Garland’s production spiked to 27.5 points, 2.2 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 1.2 steals per 75 possessions on a 34 percent usage rate. That kind of assist volume plays in every format, but in High Score, where dimes are worth two points, it becomes a weekly hammer. The Clippers are starting over. Garland is the blueprint.
Dejounte Murray’s Second Act in New Orleans
Dejounte Murray’s last two years were defined by rehab and frustration. Just 45 games while working back from an Achilles tear. Long nights on the sideline. Questions about whether he could still be the relentless, two-way force who once lived in the fantasy Top 25.
Down the stretch last season, those questions found their answer.
Since the 2021-22 campaign, Murray’s long-term baseline sits at 20.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.9 threes. Those are franchise-guard numbers. He has yet to turn 30, and modern Achilles recoveries look nothing like they did a decade ago.
His final 13 games told the story: 17 points, 5.6 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.7 steals in around 28 minutes a night. Essentially his five-year production in six fewer minutes. That’s efficiency, not decline.
Now he steps into a New Orleans backcourt alongside Jeremiah Fears, Jordan Poole and scorers like Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III. The lane will be spaced, the ball will be in his hands, and the steals alone are a weapon in High Score formats, worth more than five points per night by themselves. Managers who believe the injury chapter is closed will be early to this revival.
VanVleet’s Discount in Houston
Fred VanVleet has spent most of his career sitting comfortably inside the Top 50 of fantasy rankings. This fall, he’s sitting at the back of drafts with a 35-minute starting job in Houston waiting for him.
He tore his ACL in September 2025, but reports have him looking fully healthy. The body of work is too strong to ignore. Over the last six seasons, VanVleet has averaged 18.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks and 3.1 threes. That’s a veteran guard who fills every column.
Even if you strip it down to his two-year baseline with the Rockets — 15.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.6 blocks on solid shooting — the price tag feels wrong. Houston’s postseason run exposed how badly they missed his control, his late-game decision-making, his ability to organize possessions when the pressure peaks.
He gets all of that back now. Fantasy managers get a proven engine at a clearance rate.
Fox Mispriced After a Bruising Spring
De’Aaron Fox’s draft slot tells a story that isn’t his.
San Antonio’s spring belonged to Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle, two young guards who seized the playoff spotlight. Fox, meanwhile, hobbled through a significant ankle sprain, a brutal handicap for a player whose entire game is built on burst and blow-by speed. The result: his fantasy price has dipped far below his track record.
He doesn’t turn 29 until just before Christmas. The legs are not gone.
Even in what qualifies as a down year, Fox still averaged 18.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.2 assists and 1.2 steals. That’s the production of a player going around pick 85. The problem for the market is that his six-year baseline tells a very different story: 24.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.2 assists and 1.5 steals.
Durability backs him up. Fox has played at least 72 games in three of the last four seasons. In a High Score format, where one explosive night can swing a matchup, his trademark outbursts become week-winners. If this is his floor, managers grabbing him in the middle rounds are stealing ceiling at a discount.
Quickley in Toronto: Garland Lite at a Cheaper Tag
Immanuel Quickley’s profile looks a lot like Garland’s. The difference is perception — and about 40 picks of draft capital.
Toronto’s rotation runs deeper, and that’s what’s holding his price down. But this is where context matters. Players like Scottie Barnes don’t clog possessions; they elevate teammates, especially a starting point guard who can shoot and create.
Across two full seasons with the Raptors, Quickley has averaged 16.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.6 threes. He has done it on nearly 44 percent shooting from the field, 38 percent from three and 84 percent at the line. All of that in just 30.6 minutes per game.
Thirty minutes looks more like his floor this season. Behind him are Jamal Shead and Ja’Kobe Walter, capable but not exactly threats to devour his workload. Quickley has appeared in at least 64 games in five of his six NBA seasons, giving him a reliability that fantasy managers quietly crave.
If Garland is the headliner, Quickley is the indie favorite with the same sound and a cheaper ticket.
Pippen Jr. and the Open Door in Memphis
Memphis is starting over at point guard after the Ja Morant trade, and that vacancy has turned into one of the most intriguing fantasy battles of the preseason. Scotty Pippen Jr. is right in the middle of it — and every time he has been asked to run the team, he has delivered.
Across three seasons with the Grizzlies, Pippen Jr. has averaged 10.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.2 threes in 22 minutes a night. Those are efficient, productive minutes. When he stepped in as a starter two seasons ago, filling in for Morant, he posted 14.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.7 assists over a 21-game stretch.
Last season, he appeared in only 10 games, but he finished the year in the starting lineup. That’s not noise; that’s a coaching staff testing a theory. His past production, clean fit on the roster and a draft cost sitting around 155 combine into one of the best late-round values on the board.
If he wins the job outright, that ADP will look laughable by December.
Keon Ellis: The Deep-League Thief in Brooklyn
Keon Ellis sits outside the Top 200 in most drafts. He shouldn’t be ignored there.
Brooklyn’s guard rotation is wide open, and Ellis brings a skill set that coaches trust and fantasy players obsess over: defense that shows up in the box score. A clear path to 30 minutes is finally in sight with the Nets, and that’s all he really needs.
For his career, Ellis has played just under 20 minutes per game, yet he has produced 1.2 steals and 0.6 blocks a night. Those are elite defensive counting stats in a limited role. Stretch that workload, and the impact spikes.
In leagues that pay three points per steal and block like High Score, those numbers alone justify a roster spot. If the minutes climb as expected, he becomes one of those unheralded guards who quietly tilt standings from the end of the bench.
Draft rooms love big names and last year’s headlines. This guard class rewards something else: patience, memory, and a willingness to bet on roles and resumes instead of noise. Garland, Murray, VanVleet, Fox, Quickley, Pippen Jr. and Ellis all sit at the intersection of opportunity and price.
The question now is simple: who sees it before the rest of the league wakes up?
