Dan Hooker Predicts Paddy Pimblett Will Get Gaethje Rematch

Dan Hooker has seen enough of how the UFC does business to make a blunt prediction: Paddy Pimblett is getting the next shot at Justin Gaethje.

The New Zealander, a hardened veteran of the lightweight division, believes merit will once again take a back seat to marketability when the promotion books its next title fight at 155 lbs.

“He’s the champ, he can do whatever the (expletive) he wants… Some champs can’t, but Justin Gaethje can… For sure they’re just sliding Paddy Pimblett into a title fight, that’s probably what they’re gonna do,” Hooker told Submission Radio, cutting straight through the usual matchmaking politeness.

From Upset Loss To Title Conversation

On paper, Pimblett shouldn’t be this close to another crack at Gaethje.

The Scouser entered UFC 324 in January as the favorite in the main event, expected by many to usher in a new era by beating Gaethje for the interim lightweight belt. Instead, Gaethje tore up the script. He outworked Pimblett over five rounds, earned a unanimous decision, and walked away with interim gold and a date with then-champion Ilia Topuria.

That win was supposed to be a detour. It turned into a launchpad.

Gaethje then stunned the sport at UFC Freedom 250, upsetting Topuria with a performance that reminded everyone why his name is permanently attached to chaos and violence at 155. The interim tag vanished. The belt became undisputed. So did Gaethje’s power in the division.

Pimblett, meanwhile, had to live with the sting of an upset loss in a fight he was “supposed” to win. He didn’t stay wounded for long. At UFC 329, he produced the kind of moment the UFC’s hype machine craves, submitting Benoit Saint Denis in emphatic fashion and dragging himself right back into the conversation.

One loss, one statement win, and suddenly the idea of a rematch doesn’t feel far-fetched at all.

Star Power vs Sporting Merit

Hooker’s read isn’t complicated. It’s rooted in how the UFC has handled Pimblett from the start.

Pimblett is one of the biggest names in the lightweight division, a promotional dream with a fanbase that travels, shouts, and buys. The company has been nudging him toward a title shot for years, carefully stacking the deck to build his profile and keep the momentum rolling.

That’s why the defeat to Gaethje at UFC 324 landed so heavily. It wasn’t just a loss; it was a derailment of a long-term plan. Pimblett was favored, framed as the future, and Gaethje tore that narrative apart.

But his submission of Saint Denis changed the temperature again. It gave the UFC something it can sell: redemption, rivalry, and a second chance at the man who halted his rise. It also gave matchmakers an excuse to do what they often do—prioritize the name that moves the needle.

On pure sporting grounds, Pimblett is not the obvious next man up. The co-main event of UFC 331, featuring Arman Tsarukyan against Mauricio Ruffy, looks far more like a traditional title eliminator. Tsarukyan, in particular, has long been held up as a future champion, the kind of technician who normally earns his way to the belt the hard way.

There’s also Charles Oliveira, quietly rebuilding his own case with two straight wins and a résumé that already includes a reign as lightweight king. A rematch between Oliveira and Gaethje would be easy to justify, a clash of proven elite contenders with unfinished business.

On paper, Tsarukyan-Ruffy winner or Oliveira makes more sense.

But the UFC doesn’t book fights on paper.

The Gaethje Factor

Hooker’s other point is just as important: Justin Gaethje is not a normal champion.

Some titleholders are locked into the company’s preferred path, pushed into mandatory challengers and rankings logic. Gaethje is different. His career has been built on chaos, on walking into the hardest fights available and turning them into events. He’s earned a level of leverage that lets him lean toward spectacle.

If Gaethje wants Pimblett, the path clears quickly. The champion brings violence, Pimblett brings noise, and the UFC brings the marketing campaign. From a business standpoint, it’s almost too easy.

Fans who live and die by rankings will hate it. Hooker knows that. The sport’s purists will point to Tsarukyan, Ruffy, Oliveira and ask what else they have to do. They’ll argue that rewarding Pimblett so quickly after a clear loss to the same man cheapens the division.

But the UFC has never pretended to be a meritocracy first. It’s a business with a belt attached.

Pimblett remains one of its favorites. Gaethje now holds the crown. If the veteran from New Zealand is right, the promotion won’t hesitate to pair them again—and let the rest of the lightweight sharks wait their turn.