Champions League Draw: Winners and Losers Revealed

The new-look Champions League league phase has handed its 36 clubs their fate. Eight games each, no identical schedules, and – as the Opta power rankings make brutally clear – anything but a level playing field.

Using Opta’s global scale, which rates 16,000 teams around the world, the numbers strip away the noise. Some giants have been cushioned. Others have been thrown straight into the fire.

Liverpool and Arsenal land the softest Premier League blows

Among the Premier League sides, Liverpool walk away as the biggest winners from the draw. On paper, at least.

Their eight opponents carry an average Opta rating of 90.0 – the ninth-kindest run of fixtures of any club in the competition. That matters. In a league-phase format where every point counts, the margins lie in who you avoid as much as who you face.

Liverpool have hit the sweet spot. Atlético Madrid and Inter, statistically the two most favourable pot-one opponents available to English clubs, both land in their path. No Real Madrid. No Bayern Munich. No Barcelona. No Paris Saint-Germain. For a club built on European nights, they’ve dodged the true behemoths.

Arsenal’s draw is more of a rollercoaster.

At the top end, it is savage. Bayern Munich away and Real Madrid at home – about as heavy as pot-one fixtures can get. Add Borussia Dortmund, the highest-ranked side in pot two, and Mikel Arteta’s team will be pushed to their limits in the marquee games.

Then the floor drops away.

Arsenal have drawn the two lowest-ranked teams in pot four: Sabah and Slovan Bratislava. Sabah sit 170th in the world in Opta’s rankings, Slovan Bratislava 224th. They are not just the weakest in their pot; they are the two lowest-ranked clubs in the entire competition. The top of Arsenal’s draw bites hard, but the bottom end is as soft as it gets. If they handle the heavyweights, there is real room to rack up points elsewhere.

Stuttgart and Inter hit the jackpot

No one, though, has it better than Stuttgart.

The Bundesliga side emerge with the easiest schedule of all 36 clubs. Their opponents average 88.9 on the Opta scale, the lowest figure in the field. In a format that rewards consistency over six months, that kind of platform can transform expectation into genuine ambition.

Inter are not far behind. Their average opponent rating of 89.5 gives them the second-softest run in the competition.

That will be welcome in Milan. After finishing as Champions League runners-up in 2024-25, Inter’s follow-up was a shocker: a surprise elimination to Bodø/Glimt in the playoff stage last season. This time, the numbers point to a different route. With this schedule, Simone Inzaghi’s side will expect to avoid the jeopardy of the playoffs altogether and drive straight into the last 16.

They have been burned once. The draw has given them every chance to make sure it does not happen again.

City, Villa and United walk into a storm

At the other end of the spectrum, the picture darkens quickly for England’s other heavyweights.

Manchester City begin a Champions League campaign without Pep Guardiola for the first time in 11 years. Enzo Maresca steps into the most demanding job in European football – and the draw has offered him no breathing space.

City’s opponents carry an average rating of 91.7, the toughest schedule handed to any Premier League club and harsher than all but five teams in the entire competition. From pot one alone they must tackle Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain, two of the continent’s superclubs. From pot three comes Napoli, ranked 34th in the world and a brutal assignment at that level.

There are no soft landings here. Maresca’s new era starts under floodlights and pressure.

Aston Villa know that feeling. They too have drawn Barcelona and PSG from pot one, a double assignment that would stretch even Europe’s most established squads.

Villa at least have history to cling to. Their last clash with PSG at Villa Park still lingers: a 3-2 home win in the second leg of their 2024-25 quarter-final, a breathless night that wasn’t quite enough as they went out 5-4 on aggregate. That team has already shown it can live with the French champions.

But this is a very different Villa.

Unai Emery’s squad has shifted significantly over the summer, and the draw has shown no mercy higher up the board. From pot two, Villa have pulled the toughest possible pair: Club Brugge and Borussia Dortmund. The glamour is there; so is the grind. The lower pots offer some relief, but not enough to mask how steep this climb will be.

Emery has built his reputation on European know-how. He will need all of it if this reshaped Villa side are to punch deep into the knockout rounds again.

Manchester United, meanwhile, return to the Champions League for the first time since 2023-24 with scars still visible. That last campaign ended with four defeats in six games and a bottom-placed finish in their group. This draw does not repeat that level of brutality, but it leans heavily towards the difficult side.

From pot one, United face Bayern Munich and Atlético Madrid. There is no hiding place in either of those fixtures. From pot four comes Como – statistically the most difficult opponent available in that tier. The supposed safety net has teeth.

The middle ground is no easier. Sporting CP, ranked 21st in the world, and Roma, 22nd, promise tight, tactical contests. RB Leipzig (38th) and Villarreal (43rd) arrive from pot three – not the worst-case scenario, but far from the dream. United could have drawn far kinder.

For a club still trying to re-establish its European identity, this campaign will demand clarity, resilience, and results against serious opposition almost every week.

Sabah, Slavia Prague and Lens face the climb of their lives

At the very bottom of the seeding, the numbers tell a ruthless story.

Sabah, already the lowest-ranked side in the competition, have also been hit with the hardest fixture list of all. Slavia Prague, another club used to punching upwards in Europe, emerge with the third-toughest schedule. The gulf in resources and ranking they face will be stark in almost every match.

Between them sits Lens.

The Ligue 1 club have been dealt one of the most unforgiving paths of any side, with their opponents averaging a formidable 92.1 on the Opta scale. Atlético Madrid are not far behind on 92.0, a reminder that even established European names can find themselves staring at a brutal calendar.

For some, this league phase is an opportunity. For others, it is survival.

The draw has done its part. The numbers are fixed. Now the question hangs over Europe: who will turn a kind schedule into a statement season – and who will discover that even the toughest fixture list cannot stop a team ready to tear up the script?